(WHTM) - A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll shows Donald Trump with a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the critical battleground state of Pennsylvania.
The poll of 880 likely Pennsylvania voters conducted after the candidates' first and possibly only debate showed Trump leading 48% to 47% with 4% undecided and 1% going to a third party candidate. Most third party candidates have been rejected from Pennsylvania's ballot or have dropped out of the race.
A promising sign for Harris is support among the poll's undecided voters with 68% leaning toward the Vice President. When undecided voters are assigned to a candidate, Harris leads Trump 49.6% to 49.3%.
When asked who they believe will win the race, regardless of who they support, Pennsylvania voters told pollsters they believe Harris will be the 47th President of the United States.
More than 51% said they believe Harris will win compared to 48% for Trump.
Harris and Trump also had nearly identical favorable ratings with 48.6% said they had a somewhat or very favorable opinion of Harris and 48.8% saying the same of Trump.
The two candidate's unfavorable ratings were also a mirror image with 44.6% feeling very unfavorable of Harris and 44.8% having the same feeling toward Trump.
The same poll also showed incumbent U.S. Senator Bob Casey (D) with a 5% lead in the race with 47% support to his Republican challenger Dave McCormick's 42%. The poll found 12% of voters are undecided with less than two months until Election Day on November 5.
Overwhelmingly, the top issue for Pennsylvania voters remains the economy at 52% in the poll. Threats to democracy was second at 12% followed by immigration, abortion, and healthcare in the single digits.
Emerson College Poll September_2024Download
Methodology
The sample size for Pennsylvania is n=880 with a credibility interval of +/-3.2%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity,education, and voter registration/turnout data. The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English. Data was collected between the evening of September 15-18, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
