(WHTM) - The race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania remains tight between incumbent U.S. Senator Bob Casey (D) and Republican Dave McCormick.
A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill shows Casey with a 5% lead in the race with 47% support to McCormick's 42%. The poll found 12% of voters are undecided with less than two months until Election Day on November 5.
Bob Casey, Dave McCormick agree to Nexstar-hosted Pennsylvania U.S. Senate Debate in Harrisburg
Casey has consistently led in the race since he and McCormick won their largely uncontested spring primary races.
Leading up to the election, polls recorded by FiveThirtyEight in July and August had shown Casey with as high as a 14-point lead and an average lead of 7%.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll released in late August found Casey with a 4% lead in the race. The race was unchanged from July’s poll after Casey’s lead on McCormick dipped slightly from his 6% lead in Emerson College Polling/The Hill’s June survey.
Earlier this month a CNN poll showed Casey and McCormick both with 46% support, marking the first time the two had been tied.
Casey and McCormick will debate for the first time at the abc27 studio in Harrisburg on October 3.
In the presidential race, the September Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll showed former President Donald Trump narrowly leads Kamala Harris by 1%, which is within the poll's +/- 3.2% margin of error. However, 68% of undecided Pennsylvania voters leaned toward Harris and 51% of voters said they believe Harris will ultimately win.
“There has been modest movement in the presidential election since the late August Emersonswing state polls before the presidential debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of EmersonCollege Polling, said. “In Arizona and North Carolina, Trump lost a point, and Harris gained apoint. Trump’s support stayed the same in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, while Harris’support decreased by a point in Michigan and Nevada, and stayed the same in Wisconsin. InGeorgia, Trump gained two points and Harris lost two.”
Overwhelmingly, the top issue for Pennsylvania voters remains the economy at 52% in the poll. Threats to democracy was second at 12% followed by immigration, abortion, and healthcare in the single digits.
Emerson College Poll September_2024Download
Methodology
The sample size for Pennsylvania is n=880 with a credibility interval of +/-3.2%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity,education, and voter registration/turnout data. The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English. Data was collected between the evening of September 15-18, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
