(WHTM) - Incumbent U.S. Senator Bob Casey and Republican challenger Dave McCormick are tied in the final Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey of the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate race before Election Day.
The poll of 1,000 Pennsylvanians shows both Casey and McCormick with 47% support and 6% of voters still undecided before the November 5 election.
Since October, support for McCormick has increased one point, while support for the three-term incumbent Casey stayed at 47%.
The same Emerson College/The Hill poll showed Donald Trump leading Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania by 1% with a +/- 3% margin of error.
McCormick has significantly cut into Casey's lead since the summer. In August Casey led by 4% in the Emerson College/The Hill poll and in June Casey led by 6%. Following two debates and months of television advertising leading up to Election Day, McCormick closed in trailing by just 2% in an early October poll.
In late October The Cook Political Report shifted the Pennsylvania Senate race into the “toss-up” category.
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The sample size for Pennsylvania is n=1,000, with a credibility interval of +/-3%.
METHODOLOGY
The sample size for Arizona is n=900, with a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin oferror of +/-3.2%. The sample size for Michigan is n=790, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4%.The sample size for North Carolina is n=860 with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The samplesize for Nevada is n=840, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. The sample size forPennsylvania is n=1,000, with a credibility interval of +/-3%. The sample size for Wisconsin isn=800, with a credibility interval of +/-3.4%
Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, partisan affiliation/registration, education, and voter registration/turnout data per state.
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web andlandlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with anonline panel provided by CINT. The surveys were offered in English. Data was collectedbetween October 30-November 2, 2024. The surveys were conducted by Emerson CollegePolling and sponsored by Nexstar Media. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced.
Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with aconfidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
