(WHTM) - The race in Pennsylvania between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is separated by just a few points, according to a new Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll.
Trump leads Harris in Pennsylvania 48% to 46% head to head, according to the poll, with 7% undecided. With third-party candidates Robert F. Kennedy, Cornel West, Jil Stein, and Chase Oliver considered, Trump led Harris 46% to 44% with Kennedy receiving 3%.
When undecided voters were asked how they were leaning, Trump led with 52% to 48% support toward Harris. When combining the undecided's support, Trump led Harris 51% to 49%.
The survey, which was conducted in the days after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, shows Harris outperforming Biden by 3% in Pennsylvania.
"Harris has recovered a portion of the vote for the Democrats on the presidential ticket since thefallout after the June 27 debate,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson CollegePolling, said. “Harris’ numbers now reflect similar support levels to those of Biden back inMarch.”
Favorability in Pennsylvania is virtually tied between Harris and Trump; 47% of Pennsylvanians had a favorable opinion of the Vice President and 46% had a favorable opinion of the former President.
Harris is also within the margin of error of Trump in the battleground states of Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
"Young voters have shifted toward Harris: her support increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight inGeorgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling thismonth," said Kimball.
When it comes to picking a running mate, Pennsylvania voters are in favor of Harris selecting Governor Josh Shapiro for the ticket. Forty percent of all Pennsylvania voters support Shapiro being on the ticket and 57% of Pennsylvania Democrats want Shapiro to be the Vice Presidential nominee.
Forty-nine percent of Pennsylvanians have a favorable opinion of Shapiro's performance as Governor, according to the poll. Only 37% of Pennsylvanians have a favorable opinion of President Biden's job performance.
In Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate race, Bob Casey (D) led Dave McCormick (R) 48% to 44% with 8% undecided, according to the survey.
Unchanged from recent polling, the economy is the top issue for Pennsylvanians. According to the latest survey, 50% of Pennsylvanians cite the economy as their top issue. Nine percent said threats to democracy were their top issue followed by 7% who said immigration.
ECP_5State_7.23.2024Download
Methodology
The sample size for Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan is n=800 per state. The credibility intervalfor each state is +/-3.4%. The sample size in Pennsylvania is n=850, with a credibility interval of+/-3.3%. The sample size for Wisconsin is n=845, with a credibility interval of +/-3.3%. Datawas weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education, and voter registration and turnout data.
The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web andlandlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with anonline panel provided by CINT. Data was collected between July 22-23, 2024. The survey wasconducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Emerson College & Nexstar Media.
It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and know with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times.
